MLB 2025
Copyright MLB. Image by Nick M.W.
The Dodgers try to repeat as champs while the rest of MLB comes for the crown.
148 days will have passed since my Dodgers clinched their eighth World Series title and tomorrow, the official Opening Day of the 2025 MLB season. Of course, the season’s soft opening was last week with the Tokyo Series between the defending champs and the Chicago Cubs, but today is first pitch in some games that mean something all the other teams in the league. This season is shaping up to be another competitive marathon to October, and only twelve out of the thirty MLB teams can qualify for the privilege to play in the postseason.
No Major League Baseball team has repeated as World Series champion since the Yankees ran off their three-peat in the late 1990s. I thought the Phillies would do it in 2008 and 2009, but the Yankees spoiled that double-feature. The Giants of the early 2010s took a couple of years off in between titles and only won them in even number years. The Astros came around later in the decade with a formidable team that buried themselves under their own trash pile of cheating. They won a World Series in 2022 the proper way, without having to cheat, but they didn’t put together a repeat performance in 2023. The Rangers won it that year, but their title defense in 2024 fell short of any repeat expectations as the Dodgers went on to win it all last season. Because of their “we are not fucking around” approach to the offseason, the Dodgers have set the expectations for their 2025 way up into the stratosphere. It would appear that there is more pressure to do what they did last season this season. They are certainly built for success this year (and beyond), but will they be able to meet the moment again when it comes a callin’?
Vegas oddsmakers seem to think the Dodgers have a good shot at repeating, giving them the best odds to win it this year (+240*). Here’s the VegasInsider.com list of top ten MLB teams with the best odds to win the 2025 World Series:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (+240)
2. New York Yankees (+830)
3. Atlanta Braves (+890)
4. Philadelphia Phillies (+1100)
5. New York Mets (+1400)
6. Baltimore Orioles (+1560)
7. Houston Astros (+1720)
8. Texas Rangers (+2120)
9. Boston Red Sox (+2000)
10. San Diego Padres (+2560)
Odds this early don’t usually matter much. Only three teams in the past 25 years with the best preseason odds to win the World Series managed to live up to the hype: the 1998 New York Yankees, the 2007 Boston Red Sox, and the 2020 L.A. Dodgers. It’s worth noting that the 2025 Dodgers are far ahead the favorites going into the season, given the fact they won it all last season and then had an embarrassment of riches offseason. But history is against them and their shot at repeating.
MLB.com’s Mike Petriello published an article last week titled “Tiers of Contending Teams”, and he has the in a tier of their own, but not without caveats. Let’s just do a quick run through of his tiers and offer up some thoughts.
Tier 1
Los Angeles Dodgers
In a tier of their own with a 23% chance of repeating as champs this year, the Dodgers have the highest percentage chance to win the World Series in 2025. Even at those odds, they still have a 75% chance of falling short of history. That’s baseball. You fail more than you succeed. Three hits out of ten makes you great despite failing to do so the other seven times. Obviously, one of the Dodgers’ advantages is their insane depth, which was pushed to the absolute limit all season long last year. They were one game away from being eliminated by the Padres in the NLDS, and I thought that it was a foregone conclusion in Game 4 that the Dodgers were going to break our hearts again. That didn’t happen, and I believe that beating San Diego was all they needed to go on and win it all. That win did more than just allow them to advance; it solidified the grit of that team, which they absolutely needed to pull off a wild comeback in Game 5 of the World Series. I believe that carries over season-to-season. Once you build that character trait, it’s there. It’s what has made the Trashstros such a tough out in the playoffs the past seven years, and it’s the Dodgers’ best advantage because when it comes down to it, a lot of teams are talented, but the players still have to show up in crunch time and play.
Tier 2
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Baltimore Orioles
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Yankees
Petriello labeled this tier as the “only goal is winning it all” group, which may be the goal every team has in mind when they open Spring Training, but realistically there are only a few teams in the league who have a shot. These five teams were in the playoffs last season and have been in contention for the last few years (the Braves won the World Series in 2021). If not for untimely injuries and poor on-field play, maybe a couple of these teams would have won it all in recent years. In 2025, these squads are returning with both fresh faces and some stars already on the IL.
The Yankees lost Gerrit Cole for the year to (another) injury and lost Juan Soto (their best bat) to free agency (why didn’t they want to pay him?). Giancarlo Stanton and Luis Gil are also currently hurt, plus they may have a bit of a hangover from last year’s Game 5 choke job and all-around World Series beatdown, but they’re the Yankees and still have a better shot than most other teams. With that said, I like the Orioles to win the AL East, and I could see the Yankees and Red Sox in the Wild Card mix.
Assuming everyone stays on the field this season, I think the Braves will win the NL East and make a strong push for the pennant. I see them as the Dodgers’ toughest competition in the National League this season. No team suffered more from its missing stars in the playoffs than the Braves did last season. The Mets will take a step back and miss the playoffs this year despite the money they continue to invest in their roster. The Braves and Phillies are better. One of those two teams will win the division, and the other will be a Wild Card team.
“But that leaves two other Wild Card playoff spots for the Mets.”
Well, about that…
Tier 3
Chicago Cubs
Arizona Diamondbacks
Texas Rangers
Boston Red Sox
These four teams missed the playoffs last season, and not by much. In 2024, everything went wrong for the D-backs and Rangers that went right for them the season before, when they met up in the 2023 World Series. I don’t think both teams will have the same bad luck this season (although, the Rangers pitching staff is battling through some injuries). Texas added Joc Pedersen’s boom or bust bat to a potent offense, and the D-backs lost Dodger killer Christian Walker to the Astros, but they picked up Corbin Burnes and added that arm to their talented rotation.
Boston and Chicago made several changes to their rosters and look to be on the up-and-up. The NL Central is about as wide open as any division in the MLB, and Chicago is the early favorite to win it. They have a talented squad and an experienced manager, but will the Reds take a step forward and put the brakes on that playoff party train?
The AL East is a grind, but the Red Sox are the most improved team in that division and are the healthiest of that bunch to start this season. I hate seeing Walker Buehler put on that uniform. He’s going to anchor the Red Sox rotation. A lot of ball washers are picking them to win their division and get back to the glory days of the 2010s. This might be a breakout season.
Tier 4
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
San Diego Padres
Tampa Bay Rays
Cincinnati Reds
Kansa City Royals
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
This is MLB’s middle class, according to Petriello. These teams are good, and they’ll be in the mix, but are they good enough to get over the hump? The three AL Central teams (Royals, Tigers, and Twins) all finished pretty close to each other last season, and are expected to be as good as they were last season. Which one of them will push it just a little bit further in 2025? The Royals and Tigers caught the league by surprise last season, and I think the Royals keep up that momentum in 2025.
The Mariners and Rays have fantastic pitching staffs, but neither team can score runs. They remind me of the Dodgers teams from the early 2010s that featured great pitchers but couldn’t win a game if they had to score more than three runs. The M’s and Rays are similar in a lot of ways. These franchises are great at bringing up homegrown talent, but not so great at retaining it. They have similar team colors. Both have proven that they can squeeze the most out of their rosters and ride that wave into the playoffs. The M’s haven’t gotten quite as far into the playoffs as the Rays have, but that can’t last forever. Will their World Series drought end in 2025?
I was initially surprised to see the Padres in this tier because they are talented and experienced. They’ve cut their teeth in high-intensity games the last few seasons but fallen short of the ultimate goal, which means they’re hungry. But they are thin at starting pitching until Musgrove returns, and they lost Jurickson Profar to free agency. He’s not a household name, but dude was often the team’s catalyst. He made an incredible home run stealing catch in Game 2 of the NLDS, taunted Dodgers fans, and got the game stopped for several minutes because those fans were throwing whatever they had around them on the field. It would have been a memory to endure all time for Padres’ fans had they ended up winning the series. They should be good this year, but (much like the Giants), their margins for success are razor thin in a division with the surging D-backs and the leviathan Dodgers.
As for the Reds, fans are ready to give them flowers, to crown them the hot new team in MLB (like they did the Padres a few years ago), but I’m not sure they are good enough to make the playoffs just yet. Elly De La Cruz is the real deal, though.
Tier 5
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
These two teams may just be nearing the end of their eras. Houston has done nothing but win the AL West for seven straight years, appear in three World Series, win one (without cheating), cheat to win another and get away with it (fuck you, Mansfeld), and continue to be a threat year in and year out. But they’ve said goodbye to several stars in recent years, and goodbye to Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Justin Verlander (again), and Ryan Pressly in the offseason. They still have Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. They signed Christian Walker. They’ve got some juice, but is it enough to win it all this year before more changes come to the team and their window closes?
The Blue Jays haven’t been nearly as successful, but they’ve had a talented group of young players who they will not (likely) be able to keep together next season. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt, and Max Scherzer could walk next year, and George Springer and Kevin Gausman the year after. Seems like the times will be a-changing in the Six, soon.
Tiers 6 – 9
Milwaukie Brewers
Cleveland Guardians
Sacramento (?) Athletics
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim)
St. Louis Cardinals
Miami Marlins
Chicago White Sox
Colorado Rockies
I’m going to quick hit the rest of these teams because they will probably not be playing into October. The Brewers and Guardians are not completely out of contention, but it feels like they won’t have enough to get them out of a Wild Card series.
The Nationals have lost the most games in MLB since they won the 2019 World Series. They have a couple of exciting young players in Dylan Crew and James Woods, but who is going to pitch for them (not named Mackenzie Gore)?
The A’s played .500 ball in the second half of the season. Their pitching staff was lights on during that stretch, too, but they’re the A’s, and they are playing in a minor league stadium, which just cannot house an MLB champ. It’s impossible.
The Pirates, Angels, Marlins, White Sox, Cardinals, and Rockies round out the bottom the MLB. Harsh to hear Cardinals fans, isn’t it? Where are you going from here? Up is the only way to go, but it’s a long way to the top if you want to rock and roll, and they have tiers of talent to play through. Much better teams. This season might just be a wash for these squads, but the bad times won’t last forever. Neither will the good ones, which is why I am excited for the new season to begin but also lamenting the end of what was a glorious offseason for the Dodgers and their fans.
Here are my division winners and Wild Card picks for MLB 2025:
American League
AL East: Baltimore Orioles
AL Central: Kansas City Royals
AL West: Texas Rangers
AL Wild Cards: Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees
National League
NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: Cincinnati Reds
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Cards: San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks, Philadelphia Phillies
I’ll save the playoff predictions for an article that I’ll never write because I stopped making predictions after two bummy postseasons for the Dodgers when I predicted them to at least win the pennant. I’m too much of a homer to bring that bad juju on them again, but I’m not completely blinded by my fanaticism to suggest that they are easily going to repeat because of the talent on their roster. The road to one championship is hard enough. Repeating as a champion is next to impossible, like they share a wall.
The 2025 season will not end favorably for 29 teams, but it will be legendary for that one lucky squad. I’m looking forward to watching it all go down.
*This +/- represents the average between five Vegas sportsbooks.
